TrendForce: global smartphone market declined 1.7% in Q1, things will get worse later this year | Infinium-tech
According to the report, 284 million smartphones were produced globally in the first three months of 2026, 1.7% less than the same period last year. trendforce. The impact of the increase in memory prices was minimal, but only because manufacturers had a stock of cheap memory available – which is slowly being depleted.
For the full year 2026, analysts’ forecast is grim – production of 1.051 billion units or 16.2% less than last year. And it’s a good option trendforce notes: “The annual decline could become even more pronounced if memory price increases remain high and brands are forced to repeatedly raise retail prices.”
Different manufacturers will be impacted differently – those that focus on premium devices with wider margins are better placed to absorb the impact. Meanwhile, Chinese brands that prioritized entry-level and mid-range devices will suffer losses.
Top Smartphone Manufacturers in Q1 2026. Source: TrendForce
Samsung was the largest smartphone maker in Q1 this year, producing 62.6 million units – up 2.3% from Q1 2025. This was thanks to an increase in production for the launch of the Galaxy S26 series. trendforce Says Samsung has low-end models that are a going concern (due to low margins), but it has the financial backing of the broader Samsung operation.
Apple was at #2 with production of 60.2 million phones – an impressive 19.7% increase from Q1 2025, due to strong demand for the iPhone 17e. Apple has great margins, so analysts believe it will focus on increasing its market share during this difficult time for the overall smartphone market.
The top 5 include Oppo with 29.5 million units, Xiaomi with 26.0 million units and Vivo with 22.0 million units. Transion was outside the top 5 with production of 19.8 million phones in the first quarter. These companies had been growing over the years, but the lack of new components would reduce their profitability.
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