Counterpoint: smartphone market will shrink in 2026, prices will rise due to RAM shortages | Infinium-tech

You probably know that RAM prices have been skyrocketing in recent months, which will have a big negative impact on smartphones in the coming months. analyst firm competition Has revised its predictions for 2026 – instead of level shipments, the firm is now predicting that the global smartphone market will shrink by 2.1%.

The worrying thing is that memory prices will continue to increase penally – competition Warned that prices could rise by 40% by the second quarter of 2026.

Global smartphone market share by leading OEMs and year-on-year growth, 2026(E)

Currently, the bill of materials (BOM, i.e. component cost) for low-end phones is 25% higher than at the beginning of the year. Mid-range and high-end phones are seeing an increase of 15% and 10%. If Q2 forecast comes to fruition, BoMs could rise further by 8%-15%.

competition Smartphone companies are expected to see lower shipments across the board. Originally Oppo and Vivo were predicted to ship more phones next year, the revised prediction is a decline. Xiaomi and especially Honor will decline more than expected.

The big players – Apple and Samsung – will also feel the pain. However, it won’t be that bad for them. Senior analyst Yang Wang says: “Apple and Samsung are best positioned for the next few quarters. But it will be tough for others who don’t have as much leeway to manage market share versus profit margins. As the year progresses, we will see this play out, especially with Chinese OEMs.”

Year-on-Year Growth Forecast and Revisions in Smartphone Shipments, 2026

We’re already seeing smartphone makers adapt to rising costs by restructuring their product lineups and cutting specifications. “In some models, we are seeing downgrades of components such as camera modules and periscope solutions, displays, audio components, and of course memory configuration.” Senior analyst Shenghao Bai said.

Analysts warn that the average selling price (ASP) for 2026 will be higher than expected (original forecast: +3.9%, new forecast: +6.9%). This means that smartphone makers will likely try to push users towards more premium models, which are relatively less affected by rising RAM prices (since RAM makes up a smaller portion of their BoM).

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