TrendForce: Surging memory prices are about to squeeze 2026 smartphone shipments | Infinium-tech

Due to the ongoing memory chip shortage, there is going to be a huge decline in smartphone shipments this year. According to latest forecast trendforceThe market will see a 10% decline in global smartphone shipments, resulting in an estimated 1.135 billion units shipped for the calendar year.

However, there is an even worse turn of events, in which the decline could be as low as 15%, which TrendForce describes as a “bear-case scenario.” Under this scenario, global smartphone shipments for the year are projected to reach 1.061 billion units. While 2025 was not the strongest year for smartphone shipments, with an estimated 1.24-1.26 billion unit shipments, the market ended on a positive note with 2% growth for the year.

No matter what happens, the average selling prices of smartphones will inevitably increase in 2026. According to an example provided by TrendForce, memory components historically accounted for 10-15% of the average smartphone’s bill of materials (BOM), but that figure is now projected to grow to 30-40%. This will inevitably lead to a decline in the production of some manufacturers.

But the impact of rising memory prices will vary from brand to brand as some manufacturers will be better suited to absorb the costs. Samsung’s established vertical integration and role as a major memory supplier will certainly work in its favor. Apple’s customer base has historically demonstrated a better tolerance for price increases, which will likely work in Cupertino’s favor.

The same cannot be said for most Chinese OEMs, whose customers are generally more price conscious, especially for brands like Xiaomi, which rely on entry-level devices and are therefore more sensitive to cost fluctuations.

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